Gold which has had a really powerful run in the last few days, slipped a little at the end of last week, as participants booked profits in thin trading conditions. The precious metal had ended 2008 trading up 5.5 per cent, its eighth consecutive yearly gain and its longest winning streak since at least 1980.
Even though gold prices have taken their worst fall in three weeks on Friday, it is time to reflect on the precious metal. The robust surge in the US dollar has diverted most would-be buyers, while emboldening hesitant profit-takers. Poor physical demand in key jewelry markets is obviously still playing a pivotal role in gold’s short-term fortunes.
Gold edged up to 9.9 per cent last week as the dollar dropped 4 per cent to a two-month low versus the euro, which increased investor demand for the alternative asset, while platinum bounced back on technical buying after a sell-off on demand fears petered out.
It’s very grim. Shedding its workforce at the fastest pace in 34 years, the US employment scene has become very grim. The tally of year-to-date lost jobs has now reached the 2 million figure. Gold staged its own cave-in, shedding up to $25 and retreating to under the previously warned-about area of support at $745 per ounce, to touch $739.80, in the US market.
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Speculation is rife: the slumping global economy is expected to reduce demand for commodities. Investor confidence is shaken: Citigroup, the second-largest U.S. bank by assets, looks at options, including a sale of parts of the company or a merger. In the midst of all this gloom, there is light on the horizon. The appeal of the precious metal as a hedge against inflation has arisen.
With the price of oil falling more than 60 per cent from a peak in July, Iran has converted its financial reserves into gold to avoid future problems. Iran, the world’s fourth-largest oil producer, is facing declining revenue from its oil exports after crude prices tumbled. The country is also under U.N. and U.S. sanctions over its disputed nuclear program.
The results are daunting. Barack Obama’s victory in the U.S. presidential election and Democrat gains in Congress did not do much for the yellow metal. Gold declined in Asia on speculation that the move would speed the dollar’s recovery against the euro. The currency climbed against the euro, the British pound and the Australian dollar.
Stock markets are down and so is the price of the yellow metal. Gold fell for the second day in Asia, extending a monthly drop that may become the worst in more than 25 years. The reasons being cited - a stronger dollar and decline in crude oil.
The old trader’s maxim “first move, wrong move” is often used to describe the absolute despair and euphoria which tend to coexist in the world of behavioral finance and manifest themselves in market activity. The observations of the end of last week and the start of this week suggest that perhaps this mania was at work and now investors might be looking around at the current environment and deciding what the changes to the financial landscape on Wall Street will mean for the real business cycle on Main Street.
Monday, January 5, 2009
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